ValuationASML.ASIn Progress
ASML DCF Valuation Model
Two-stage discounted cash flow model for ASML Holding with sensitivity analysis on WACC and terminal growth.
01
Overview
A two-stage discounted cash flow model for ASML Holding N.V. — the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker behind EUV lithography. The model projects free cash flow over a 10-year explicit forecast horizon, then applies a Gordon-growth terminal value. All inputs are exposed as drivers in a single assumptions tab.
02
Why this project matters
ASML sits at a structural bottleneck in the global semiconductor supply chain. Valuing the business well requires reasoning about end-market cyclicality, EUV adoption curves, and reinvestment intensity — the kind of judgment a clean DCF forces you to make explicit.
03
Tools used
ExcelPythonStreamlit
04
Key assumptions
| Revenue CAGR (yrs 1–5) | 11.8% |
| Revenue CAGR (yrs 6–10) | 6.5% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% |
| Steady-state EBITDA margin | 34.0% |
| Effective tax rate | 19.0% |
| WACC | 8.42% |
| Beta (5y) | 1.05 |
| Risk-free rate | 2.85% |
05
Screenshots / visuals
Output snapshot — base case · sample data
Enterprise Value
€312.4B
+4.2% vs. market
Implied Share Price
€812.50
+6.1% upside
Sensitivity Range
€720 – €905
WACC ±50bps
Terminal Value % of EV
68%
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[ sensitivity table · WACC × terminal growth ]
06
What I learned
- ▸Most of the model's output is dictated by 3–4 assumptions; documenting them clearly is worth more than adding tabs.
- ▸Splitting drivers from outputs and locking formula columns made iteration on scenarios dramatically faster.
- ▸A clean two-variable sensitivity table is the single most useful page for a reader.
07
Next improvements
- ▸Add scenario manager (bear / base / bull) with one-click switching.
- ▸Wire the model to a Python notebook to refresh consensus assumptions from public filings.
- ▸Build a Streamlit front-end so a reader can move WACC and growth themselves.
Disclaimer: All figures shown are sample / demo data for illustration only. Not investment advice.